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The Number Of Foreign Trade Falling Down On Schedule Is Too Cold.

2009/1/19 11:51:00 26

The continuous decline in imports and exports, the negative year-on-year growth of FDI and the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves are slowing down.

In the past week, a series of macro figures issued by the government have been somewhat pessimistic, but many scholars and experts have given different interpretations.

Most of them think that the situation may be far worse than the figures show.

进出口没有想象的那么差

In January 13th, December 2008, the pcript of foreign trade was published with the publication of the General Administration of customs.

According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, the total value of imports and exports in the month was 183 billion 330 million US dollars, down 11.1% from the same period last year, of which exports were US $111 billion 160 million, down 2.8% compared to the same period last year, and imports of US $72 billion 180 million, down 21.3 from the same period last year.

From the point of view of products, export growth of consumer goods, such as clothing, furniture, plastics and other low value-added goods, has rebounded.

In the past 08 years, clothing grew by 4.1%, textile products increased by 16.6%, plastic products increased most significantly, and grew by 9.4% over the same period last year, a 3.9 percentage point increase over the cumulative growth rate in November.

Gao Shanwen, an analyst at Anxin securities, believes that the export growth rate of low-end export products such as clothing and accessories, footwear and other products in export commodities has remained stable. It seems that the impact of exchange rate and other factors on low-end exports is basically exposed in the first 3 quarters of 2008, and the country's

The role of the "export tax rebate" policy is also emerging.

Hao Daming, an analyst with China Galaxy Securities, analyzed that because China's exports were mostly low elastic products, the market demand declined under the condition of declining revenue.

China's low cost competitive advantage will not only be lost because of the financial crisis, but it may be improved because the price of raw materials is falling more than the finished products.

Although imports of commodities such as soybeans, iron ore, concentrate, crude oil and refined oil continued to decline significantly, their imports did not show a significant decline, indicating that the fall in prices should be a major factor in the import of bulk commodities.

"Therefore, the import situation is not as bad as we expected."

Gao Shanwen said.

FDI下降很正常

In January 15th, the Ministry of Commerce issued a press conference announces the introduction of foreign direct investment statistics in 2008. The spokesman, Yao Jian, said: "from the fourth quarter of last year, the absorption of foreign capital showed a downward trend, and the actual use of foreign investment in October has been negative year-on-year since October.

In the month of December, the number of newly established foreign-invested enterprises in the country was 2562, down 25.78% compared with the same period last year, and the actual amount of foreign capital invested was 5 billion 978 million US dollars, down 5.73% from the same period last year.

Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview with the newspaper: "in the current economic environment at home and abroad, the inflow of foreign capital tends to decrease, which is reasonable.

The actual amount of foreign capital utilized in the whole year amounted to US $92 billion 395 million, an increase of 23.58% over the same period, and it is still the first in developing countries for 17 consecutive years.

He further analyzed that almost all of the world trembled in the most serious international economic and financial crisis in more than 70 years. The developed countries, which have always been the major international investment home countries all over the world, are also the source of the crisis. A large number of foreign businessmen have been unable to cope with huge liquidity losses caused by huge losses and deleveraging in the crisis. Their investment ability and willingness have been greatly weakened. Their urgent task is to keep cash in the winter, rather than continue large-scale investment.

At the same time, as the demand for overseas market shrinks and most of China's foreign-funded enterprises are export-oriented, the total export volume of the top ten enterprises in the list of foreign investment enterprises over the past year usually accounts for 80% or 90% of total business revenue, and the reduction of their investment is inevitable.

"China's introduction of foreign direct investment book statistics includes a large number of false foreign investment, if China's introduction of foreign capital book data is significantly reduced, that is the performance of China's market order to standardize, is a good thing rather than a bad thing."

Mei Xin Yu said.

外汇储备增速放缓不会持续

According to the data released by the people's Bank of China on 13, at the end of 2008, China's foreign exchange reserves amounted to US $1 trillion and 950 billion, which failed to reach the US $2 trillion target of last year's market.

At the same time, the data also showed that the average monthly increase in China's foreign exchange reserves in the fourth quarter of 2008 was only US $about 10000000000, far less than the average monthly increase of US $46 billion 800 million in the first half of 2008, or less than the average monthly increase of US $38 billion 500 million in 2007.

This is the first slowdown in the growth of China's foreign exchange reserves in recent years, and the first negative growth in China's foreign exchange reserves for the first time in five years.