Ping An Securities: Raising Interest Rates And Pushing Up 10 Year Treasury Bond Interest Rates

In December 26th, Ping An Securities The analysis report issued by the Ministry of fixed income shows that the central bank announced in December 25th that the rate increase could push up the 10 year treasury bond interest rate by 10-20 basis points. Control position It is the key, and it is expected that there will be two times next year. Increase interest Opportunity.

Shi Lei, deputy general manager of Ping An Securities fixed income department, analyzed that the interest rate and the timing were in line with expectations, but the interest rate hike exceeded the market expectations. The fiscal deposit is not released as expected in the second half of 12. It may be postponed to the next year, and the short-term interest rate will remain high for the year. The interest rate increase in the year may puncture the bubble of the medium and long term bonds, which may push up the 10 year treasury bond interest rate by 10-20 basis points.

Shi Lei pointed out that in the environment of short-term repurchase interest rate over 10 year treasury bond yields, it is not necessary to raise the low yield coupons with expensive funds. The current control of positions is the key. There is no need to worry about the supply of bonds in the first quarter of 2011. After the stabilization of the assets, it is not too late to configure the short-term stocks, while the 10 year treasury bonds have little allocation value at the level below 3.9%-4.0%.

Shi Lei said that the interest rate for demand deposits remained unchanged during the current interest rate increase, while the increase in the benchmark interest rate for each period was the minimum of 1 years, which was 25 basis points. The longer and shorter term interest rates rose by 30-35 basis points, and the lending rates for each period were 25-26 basis points.

He believes that this may be on the one hand that the policy hopes to raise the deposit rate more, raise the deposit interest rate, inhibit the asset bubbles and inflation expectations, and raise the loan interest rate less. This shows that the policy has doubts about the sustainability of the total demand recovery; on the other hand, because the market generally pays attention to the 1 year interest rate level, while the 1 year interest rate rises little, the other period interest rate rises relatively high, which can reduce the panic degree of the market and at the same time achieve the purpose of raising the deposit interest rate quickly. It can be seen that the policy is more urgent to raise the deposit interest rate.

For the future interest rate increase, Shi Lei in the analysis report expected that the central bank in the next year will continue to have about two interest rates, the possibility of concentrating in the first half of the policy is greater.