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Six Major Factors &Nbsp; Analysis Of The Trend Of Home Textiles In 2011

2011/2/17 10:36:00 65

What factors will affect China in 2011?

Home textiles

The direction of the economy? Where will the focus of macroeconomic policy lie? At the end of the year, the two suspense is the focus of many analysts, especially the strategic analysts of the investment community.

At present, there are six factors that will affect the economic trend and policy trend in 2011.

First,

inflation

。

Recently, inflation has suddenly become the focus of attention of the whole society.

This problem will become even more prominent in 2011.

First, because of the global liquidity, the depreciation of the US dollar triggered import inflation; the two is the increase of resources, environment, labor and production costs; three, the acceleration of urbanization, the change of logistics structure and the increase of business cost; four, the year-on-year factors in the first half of 2011, and the PPI and CPI are now rising synchronously. The prices in 2011 may be "high before and after low", and the situation is grim, but this is not the key.

Secondly,

foreign trade

。

The pressure of domestic textile foreign trade growth in 2011 is not heavy.

First, the global economic rebalancing, the balance of trade pressure and exchange rate pressure from the developed economies will not weaken; two, net export growth will continue to fall, growth will be more difficult, the contribution of net exports will be smaller, and even drag down economic growth. Three, if imports continue to outpace exports, the surplus will be smaller and even worse.

Third, investment.

In 2011, when inflation pressure increased and monetary policy gradually returned to neutral, investment behavior, especially real estate investment, was difficult to expand significantly.

Low carbon, environmental protection, energy saving and other pformation of existing housing can digest the excess capacity of the downstream industries of some textile, building materials, decoration and other real estate industries, and increase the employment opportunities of low skilled labor intensive industries.

Fourth, consumption.

Affected by various pressures such as inflation, employment and income growth, the situation of expanding household consumption in 2011 is also a long way to go.

Since inflation is a superposition of cost push and external input, consumer behavior will tend to be conservative when the economic situation tends to tighten.

At this point, if the stock market and other investment markets continue to fall, investors' property income will continue to shrink, and even investment assets will be eroded, which will pose a threat to the expansion of home textile consumption.

Fifth, growth.

Judging from the situation in 2011, the pulling force of investment is returning smoothly in the three carriages driving economic growth. The situation of net exports is not optimistic. The expansion of household consumption lacks support from income growth and inflation resistance, and some macroeconomic policies are likely to return to neutral.

Therefore, the growth of home textiles in 2011 will be more difficult than this year.

At the same time, due to the reasons of inflation prevention, the relevant policies have lagged effect, and will also affect the expected economic prosperity of home textiles.

Its six profit.

The performance of home textile enterprises in 2011 may be very poor.

In the first half of the year, in the initial stage of inflation, the profit of home textile enterprises in the first two quarters might be better because of the price increase.

However, in the second half or the next period of time, that is, in the middle and later stages of inflation, if the demand for home textile market shrinks and the cost of production rises, business profits will be difficult.

Therefore, the situation of corporate profits in 2011 is also not optimistic.

Linking the above six factors, we can see that although there is a difference in performance, there is a common concern about deflation.

Because of the deep and structural causes of inflation, as long as we manage inflation at a moderate level of around 4% and maintain proper liquidity to ensure market prosperity and maintain a high level of economic growth at around 9%, it is possible to bypass the reef and take a smooth route.