April 2011 18~22 Day Cotton Market Weekly

Last week (April 2011 18~22), at home and abroad

Though downstream

New York's futures price fell to its lowest level in more than two months, and the international cotton price fell down.

In April 22nd, New York cotton futures contract settlement price in May was 186.67 cents / pound, down 8.85 cents / pound, or 4.5%, compared with last week.

The international cotton index (M), which represents the average price of the Chinese main port on the import cotton, is calculated on the basis of 1% tariffs. The import cost of the folded renminbi is 34814 yuan / ton, down 1681 yuan / ton, or 4.6%, compared with last week. According to the sliding tax, the import cost of the folded renminbi is 35043 yuan / ton, down 1665 yuan / ton, or 4.5% lower than last week.

Driven by the demand for downstream replenishment, yarn sales slightly improved, cotton yarn price declines slowed down, although polyester cotton yarn sales started, but the stock pressure was a big drag on the short and short quotations.

In April 22nd, the price of 32 cotton combed yarn was 36000 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton last week, or 0.3%, and polyester staple price 13850 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton, or 0.7%.

Looking ahead, the international cotton price will fluctuate.

The loose environment of the Fed's monetary policy is in sharp contrast to the ECB's tightening cycle.

The standard Pool Co downgraded the US long-term sovereign debt rating in April 18th from "stable" to "negative", which shifted the focus of the market from the euro zone debt crisis to the US fiscal problem, resulting in a complete failure of the US dollar. The US dollar index reached a minimum of 73.74 in April 21st, refreshing the financial crisis to the lowest level and providing impetus for the commodity to go up again.

At the moment, however, the trend of international cotton prices is more constrained by fundamentals.

Due to the weak demand for textile procurement, the order cancellation of cotton trade is still taking place. The volume of US cotton exports contracted to less than 10 thousand tons in 8~14 April, and the continued downturn demand will continue to suppress the trend of international cotton prices.

It is worth noting that at present, the cotton producing countries in the northern hemisphere have entered the sowing season. The focus of the market is turning to the more serious drought in the cotton producing areas of the United States. The influence of the future weather on the trend of the international cotton price will be highlighted.

Domestic cotton prices will steadily weaken.

Tons, the 429 class is 27200 yuan / ton, and the small peripheral cotton enterprises are active in delivery, indicating that the current part of the enterprises are losing their bags for peace, or will stimulate the large textile enterprises to further reduce the purchase price of lint. Secondly, although the yarn sales are better than the early stage, the textile enterprises still face greater pressure on the stock market. In addition, the RMB has accelerated appreciation recently. In April 22nd, the exchange rate of the US dollar was 6.5156, and the exchange rate reached the highest level since then. The textile and export market situation is quite grim. Finally, the central bank raised the 0.5 percentage of the RMB deposit reserve ratio of the financial institutions in April 21st, and the deposit reserve ratio of the large banks reached a new high of 20.5%. First of all, in April 20th, a large textile group in Shandong lowered the purchase price of lint 500 yuan / ton, and the 329 level was 27500 yuan /

To sum up, at present, the downstream sales of textiles remain to be warmer. The finished product inventory pressure is still in existence, capital turnover is difficult, and spot purchase is prudent, and domestic cotton prices are expected to weaken steadily.