Cotton Cheap Injury To Farmers Is Only A Short Pain &Nbsp; Long Term Cotton Price Rebound Can Be Expected.

As a result of the textile industry as a whole

Insiders have suggested that even if there is a national reserve price protection, the cotton in the early harvest will also generate losses, so the purchase will be reduced.

According to the latest expectation of the Secretariat of the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), the global cotton planting area in 2012/13 will be reduced by 8% to 33 million 300 thousand hectares, and output will be reduced by 6% to 25 million 100 thousand tons.

Futures traders believe that the volume of international cotton trade in the new year is expected to drop to 7 million tons, but the volume of trade between the US and India will not be reduced.

There may be structural tension in cotton in mainland China after the next year, and cotton will be the main supply.

Cotton prices are still weak.

The price of seed cotton continues to decline this year.

Cotton futures are also abandoned by speculators as low as cotton prices.

Since hitting a record high of US $2.197 per pound (US $4.84 per kilogram) in March this year, cotton futures prices have fallen by 58%, as investors speculate that prices will then lead to demand constraints and supply growth.

The output of cotton from Australia, China and India not only offset the decline in US production, but also exceeded it.

Zheng Yujie, an agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery researcher at China investment consulting, said: "cotton prices are still lingering at a low price in the short term, but because of the sharp fall in cotton prices, the cotton farmers' enthusiasm for production has been severely disrupted, and many cotton growers have turned to other crops or greatly reduced their planting area. This will inevitably affect the market supply, and the impact of the European debt crisis on the economy will gradually weaken, demand will rebound or increase, and cotton prices will rebound in the long run."

Cotton growers and cotton seed preservation

One side is the falling cotton price; the other is the reduced purchase.

Cotton farmers have become injured in the decline in cotton prices.

It is understood that the commodity rate of cotton reaches more than 98%, accounting for more than 17% of cotton farmers' income in cotton area, and cotton income in Xinjiang cotton area accounts for 37% of household income.

A county in Shandong calculates that according to the price of 4.1 yuan per catty, only 1435 yuan per mu of cotton can be sold. If people are asked to pick them again, they will have to pay 315 yuan for their land.

Zheng Yujie, a researcher on agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and Fisheries of China investment consulting group, said: "the root cause of this kind of cotton injury is the lack of information in the production and marketing links. This kind of information is not directly linked to the cotton farmers' blindly following the wind in the planting link. This lack of market based demand planting leads to oversupply of cotton, which leads to cotton price diving and the loss of cotton farmers' interests. Therefore, the competent agricultural authorities in various regions make rational planning for local cotton growers, scientifically arrange, and establish a market information disclosure platform in a timely manner, so as to prevent cotton farmers from following the wind and planting."

Cotton farmers should rationally choose crops

"This year, 10 mu of cotton has been planted, and now it has been picked up, and more than 4000 Jin of cotton is still piled in the house, not sold for a catty."

Cotton farmers in a county town say that cotton is expensive and time-consuming, and the cost is not low.

Waiting to wait and see, the price is going down.

The continuous decline in cotton prices has made some cotton farmers grow into other crops, which makes the industry worry that next year's cotton planting area will be greatly reduced.

"Cotton growers are not rational because of their lack of effective channels for market information collection and lagging and blindness in market conditions."

Zheng Yujie, a researcher on agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and Fisheries of China investment advisor, said.

Recently, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) Secretariat expects that the global cotton planting area will be reduced by 8% to 33 million 300 thousand hectares in and output will be reduced by 6% to 25 million 100 thousand tons.

The output of most cotton producing countries is expected to decline, except for the United States, Uzbekistan and Australia.

Zheng Yujie believes that in fact, cotton prices are mainly determined by the supply situation of the market as a whole. The current supply surplus has been determined and the consumption situation is uncertain. However, it can be predicted that consumption will not be higher than that of the previous year. Therefore, the development and Reform Commission set out a temporary cotton reserve price from the perspective of stabilizing the cotton market and protecting the interests of cotton farmers. The national policy will make cotton prices concussion near 20 thousand, so that cotton farmers can get some cost support.

Analysts point out that the root cause of this cotton injury is the lack of information in production and marketing.