In The Last 1 Weeks Before The Spring Festival, The Market Was Revealed By &Nbsp; The 14 Time In The 15 Years.

"Little rabbit, darling, toss your tail."

When the rabbit year of the lunar year is about to pass, the A Bunny has changed all the year's "plague" and has suddenly become excited.

At the bottom of the "golden fork", the tail of the rabbit began to oscillate, and the red envelope market was fermenting years ago.

As the saying goes, "the tail of a rabbit is not long", especially in the case of only one week before the Spring Festival, the market is more worried, but the "tail" is stronger than the "tail".

Then, in the case of exponential stability, how can we seize this "tail" that historically should have but not long enough?

Market analysis

"Single needle bottom" rebound

From mid December last year to early January of this year, the "single needle bottom" figure of the continuous line of K-line and weekly K-line in Shanghai indicated that a lot of kinetic energy had been gathered. Under the stimulation of multiple benefits, the stock index finally rebounded at the "tail" stage of the Lunar New Year's second year in the new year.

Reporters noted that many analysts believe that the biggest impetus to stimulate this round of rebound is the resonance of industrial capital holdings and valuation.

The second week of the new year is now on the rise.

The first week of the new year didn't give the market too much surprise, but on Monday, A shares were suddenly pulled up after a small dip.

Subsequently, the stock index went all the way.

The rebound shows two different phenomena:

First, the Shanghai stock index rebounded in January 9th to put the 10 day line on the 5 day line, and the 20 day line on the 10 day stock index. This is the first time that the Shanghai stock index has fallen back to the 20 day line in November 16, 2011, and it is the first time to stand up again, indicating that the determination to enter the capital is larger than the previous rebound.

Secondly, on the whole, compared with the previous weeks, the market showed a heavy weight stock market and Shanghai stock market was stronger than the Shenzhen stock market.

In the first 4 trading days of this week, the stock index rose by 5.16%, while the Shenzhen index, the SME board and the gem rose by 6.56%, 6.37% and 6.11% respectively.

High level shouting to boost confidence

From the disappointment of the first week of the new year to the excitement of the second week, who pulled up the "rabbit tail" and made a little surprise?

First, in the recently concluded national financial work conference, "accelerating the construction of capital markets, tightening up the system of issuing, delisting and dividends, promoting the coordinated and healthy development of primary and secondary markets, and boosting confidence in the stock market" have strongly boosted market confidence.

Second, CPI data continues to improve, opening up room for policy easing.

This week's December 2011 CPI rose to 4.1% year-on-year, a new 15 - month low, and a 0.1 percentage point decline compared to November.

Lv Chunjie, an analyst at Guotai Junan, said: "the steady decline in inflation will provide space for the actual monetary policy. It is expected that the pre saving rate will still be reduced, and the rate of interest rate will be reduced in the first quarter."

Obviously, the above judgment will foreshadowed the expectation since the middle of last year.

In the meantime, inflation falls and the Spring Festival draws near, making liquidity temporarily abundant.

This week, the central bank released a net investment of 38 billion yuan in the open market, which has been a net 3 consecutive week.

In addition, the market expects the GDP growth rate will be bottomed out in the first quarter, or the growth rate will be bottomed out in the two quarter.

Industrial capital and valuation bottom resonance

In addition to the positive side of macroeconomic policy, the biggest advantage of A shares is the massive increase in industrial capital.

If Huijin's holdings increased in October last year, it was seen by the market as a guarantee for the issuance of large cap stocks. Then, in January 9th this year, a number of "Chinese prefix" enterprises' holdings increased the market.

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In January 9th, Shenhua Group increased its holdings of Shenhua (601088, closing price 26.33 yuan) 10 million 800 thousand shares; Sinopec group increased Sinopec (600028, closing price 7.62 yuan) A, H shares, among which, the company increased 39 million 83 thousand and 100 shares of A shares. Sinopec group said it would continue to increase its holdings within 12 months, and the cumulative increase would not exceed 2% of the total shares issued by the company.

In fact, before the "Chinese prefix" stock was greatly increased, industrial capital has been fiercely "starting".

In November last year, the increase in industrial capital was 1 billion 327 million yuan. In December, it increased to 2 billion 730 million yuan, an increase of 105.73%.

According to the research, the surge of industrial capital holdings often indicates the bottom, that is, after the massive increase in industrial capital, the stock market will be bottomed out in the half month to a month.

For example, in April last year, the increase in industrial capital was 666 million yuan, blowout in May to 2 billion 22 million yuan, and the Shanghai Stock Index bottomed out in June 20th. In August last year, the increase in industrial capital was 899 million yuan, and increased to 924 million yuan in October, and November continued to increase to 1 billion 331 million yuan in November.

Shanghai Stock Index bottomed out in October 24th.

Today, at least from this week's growth, the effect of the increase in industrial capital seems to have once again been fulfilled.

The increase in industrial capital reflects their recognition of market valuations. Last December, the market accelerated to catch up, and the overall P / E level did drop sharply.

Giant data show that as of January 12th, after the big rebound this week, Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, Shenzhen stock index, small and medium board index earnings ratio was 11.15 times, 10.77 times, 15.43 times and 26.15 times, which has been further reduced than before. This is a resonance with industrial capital holdings, and provides a basis for seeing the bottom of the market.

Historical review

In the past 15 years, there were 14 preganglionic caudal tails.

Next week, the A stock market will usher in the last trading week of the year of the rabbit. But on Friday, when the index rose sharply after the rise, could the "red tail" of the rabbit grow up a little? Reporters found that from the recent 15 years of historical data, the probability of the rise of the market in the last week before the Spring Festival is great, but the increase is not necessarily big.

In 15 years, 14 times a week before the Spring Festival.

After counting the stock index since 1997, reporters found that in the past 15 years, the market performance in the last week before the Spring Festival was 14 up 1 down, the following is the last week before the Spring Festival.

1997, before the Spring Festival, the last week of the market is in a rebound after the fall, when the 5 trading days of the week, the Shanghai Stock Index Sanyang two Yin, a slight increase of 1.14%; in 1998, the background of Shanghai stock index was sideways finishing, and the small background was stabilized after the crash. When the stock index rose only 0.74% in the week, the stock index was at the end of a sharp fall in 1999. Only two trading days in the week, the first day fell 1.45% and second days increased 2.28%. Although the overall increase was only 0.8%, it created a wave of bull market after the Spring Festival; in 2000, the valuation was in the rapid rise stage after the big slump.

In the case of four Yang and one Yin, the stock index rose 4.77% in 2001, and the stock index fell only 1.86% in 1997 before the Spring Festival. In 2002, the index was in the stage of rebound after the big bear market, and the overall growth rate was 1.4%. 2003 and 2002 were very similar, and the weekly increase was 1.4%; 2004, the week before the Spring Festival rose 1.2%; the index was in the big bear market, but the resistance rose in the last week before the Spring Festival, when the week rose 4.56%.

The Shanghai stock index rose 9.82% in the week before the Spring Festival, which created the biggest "red envelope" of the market before the Spring Festival in 1997. In 2008, although the bull market was over, the stock market index rose by 6.46% in the two trading days of the week before the Spring Festival. In 2009, the stock market was in the rebound stage after the big bear market, and the stock index rose 1.85% in 2010. In 2010, the Shanghai stock index still gained 2.68% of the red envelopes in the week before the Spring Festival; in 2011, the situation was similar to that in 2010.

Before the festival or "chicken ribs" market

From the above 15 years of data, the reporter noticed four things with regularity:

First, the market is likely to rise a lot in the week before the Spring Festival.

Secondly, the market prices in the last week before the Spring Festival are often in two stages. One is the stage of anti knock after the peaked fall, and the other is the platform finishing stage after the bottom of the bear market rebound.

Third, in the last week before the Spring Festival, news is generally more stable. Whether it's good or bad news, there are few important policies before the Spring Festival because of the need to maintain stability. However, the market still worries about uncertainties at home and abroad, so the market is not afraid to do more blindly.

Four, before the Spring Festival, although the index is easy to rise, but the increase is generally not large, the market is not active enough, and belongs to the "chicken ribs" market.

From the point of view of quantity, before the Spring Festival, there is a more obvious amount of "depression" before the Spring Festival. At this stage, the mainstream funds are often in no mood for war, and large funds have been dormant for the winter. For other investors, holiday effect often means the withdrawal of Funds: enterprises need to issue year-end awards and holiday goods, and ordinary investors need to withdraw funds for consumption.

Even if there is no "Redemption" of stock funds, the incremental capital market is extremely rare.

Now look at the last week of 2012 before the Spring Festival market, the current stage is in the big bear city after the bottom of the rebound stage, as this Monday to Thursday resilience is strong, but obviously has been pressed at 2300 points.

There are market participants believe that next week's "rabbit tail market" or will appear platform finishing situation, to achieve a small overall rise.

Operation suggestion

Rebound continues to change opportunities

Though the tail of a rabbit is not long, there are always some.

This week is full of conceptual speculation.

The first bull stock this week is Jingyuan coal electricity (000552, closing price of 16.90 yuan), has been 4 consecutive trading, the biggest plate this week is the coal sector, analysts believe that the reasons for stimulating the coal stocks soaring, or the following, such as Premier Wen's speech to boost the stock market; China's Shenhua shareholder holdings plan to set an example of value investment; coal shares fell sharply earlier; coal prices fell to the end.

However, most of these factors are exogenous stimuli rather than endogenous ones.

And the purple purple pharmaceutical industry (002118, closing price of 10 yuan) has also been one of the 4 bull stocks in the current round.

From the news, some executives of the company increased their holdings accurately. But how much money does this behavior have relative to the early fall of their scandals? {page_break}

Behind this week's big rebound, the reporter noted that undervalued stock stagflation, and the stock market rose sharply, and most of the stocks in the top gainers were pulled up by hot money.

For example, from the trading seats of trading stocks, the mainstream funds are not only wait-and-see, but also fled.

In January 11th, Baoan, China (000009, closing price of 12.66 yuan) was trading, buying the top 5 seats in the sales department, while selling second seats in the sales offices; Hengyuan coal electricity (600971, closing price 15.70 yuan) showed that the seats sold by the two institutions were more than 80 million yuan; in January 12th, the Jingyuan coal electricity (000552, closing price 16.90 yuan) continued to limit on the fourth day, and the former 5 were all sales department seats, but the sale of the 5 names was the institutional seats; on the other hand, after the trading limit of Vatti shares (the closing price of yuan), the selling of the seats of the home organizations was sold in a big way.

For these ten top tradable shareholders list, the stocks and funds of the fund are filled with funds. This shows that this is not an undervalued market, but a rebound from the gap between the current stock price and the market price.

Some analysts believe that because the economic outlook is not very clear, this will lead to a complex shock market for the stock market in 2012.

It can be summed up as short term, medium to long and long term.

In the long run, the pain of economic structural adjustment is unavoidable. This is also the suffering of 2011, and it is also hard to avoid it in 2012.

In the medium term, the impact of the European debt crisis has not dissipated. The domestic economic downturn is an indisputable fact. The direction of real estate regulation is also the focus of the market. For the stock market itself, through the recent financial work conference, we can see that management has realized that the IPO system is the core of all problems, and the IPO can not be ignored on the basis of marketization, but at present, the speed of IPO has not slowed down.

Admittedly, the stock market needs to serve the economic development, and the financing of small and medium-sized enterprises is one of the ways of financing in the capital market. However, how to solve the problem of "drying up the fish" has not yet seen a clear attitude and effective action.

In the short term, the Shanghai index daily chart clearly shows that in the 4 trading days of December 19, 2011, 22, 28 and January 6, 2012, Shanghai stock index has received a long shadow line.

This shows that whenever the market breaks, there will be funds coming into the market.

Analysts: optimistic undervalued and early cyclical stocks

Based on historical statistics, the fall on Friday (January 13th) is a good thing for next week's market because it is easier to rebound after a fall than to continue to rush.

In addition, Friday's fall is likely to lead to a rebound in the style of the stock market.

Reporters noted that the theme of this week is the stock market, the world over the stock market, underestimate the value of plate performance is not many opportunities, and on Friday, the gem, small and medium-sized board stocks have begun a large callback, indicating that the completion of the rebound in funds to start shipping.

Because there will not be too much money to take over before the holiday, there will be a sharp reduction in the chances of the stock being active again in the short run.

Against this background, some analysts believe that next week's market, underestimate the value plate and early cycle plate has the advantage of offensive and defensive.

In the undervalued sector, real estate stocks are still the first choice.

This week, the real estate sector rebounded in the overall increase is not large, ranking only fifteenth industry.

It is worth noting that along with the increase of annual reports, many real estate listed companies still get performance growth under the bad policy.

Data statistics show that as of January 10th, 32 property stocks that have announced performance forecasts, 19 companies continued to grow in 2011 compared with the same period last year, and 13 companies showed a decline in performance.

Overall, it is expected that the overall performance of the real estate sector will grow by 20%~30% in 2011.

For example, Poly Real Estate (600048, closing price of 10.28 yuan) performance Bulletin shows net profit growth of 32.39%, GREE real estate (600185, closing price 5.09 yuan) performance growth of more than 50%.

Shanghai securities analyst Cai Junyi once pointed out that under the policy adjustment, real estate stocks first built up in real estate investment.

This is because from the historical data comparison, the growth rate of commercial housing sales area is used to observe the relative trend of real estate stocks (the index of real estate index divided by A share index). The growth rate of sales area and the relative trend of real estate sector are highly correlated.

And sales area growth is the leading indicator of real estate investment growth, sales generally lead investment for about 5 months.

In other words, the underlying trend of real estate stocks is always ahead of the bottom of real estate investment growth.

In addition to underestimating the value plate, the early cycle plate has also become the focus of concern of many brokerages.

Feng Qinyuan, an analyst at Everbright Securities, pointed out that in 2011, under the influence of policy regulation, the withdrawal of early stimulus policies and the downtrend of demand, the fundamentals of the cycle industry had been fully adjusted. At present, the industry boom level is low. In such sectors, the most promising ones are the home appliances and automobile sectors.

Tu Jun, a securities analyst in Shanghai, has also suggested that the focus should be on the early cycle industries that have already been adjusted to low positions, and cautiously increase banks, real estate, brokerages, automobiles, iron and steel, nonferrous metals and other industries.