Social Capital Costs Rise, Stock Market Bear Market

Because of the whole Macro economy There is no obvious improvement. Value stocks maintain a high dividend yield by steady growth and continuous dividends, about 5% of the annual interest rate. When the risk free interest rate of the whole society is raised to more than 5%, the dividend rate is unattractive. This has led to the fact that although the value stock is cheap, there is no trend investment opportunity. Looking forward to 2014, Xiaobian believes that the trend of real interest rates has not yet been seen, nor has there been any signs of rapid change in the macro economy. bull market The judgement has not changed.

Although the central bank's nominal interest rate has not been raised, the interbank lending rate of banks (market areas) has been rising continuously, and the level of private interest rates has also been raised. The risk-free interest rate of the whole society has been on the upward trend, which makes the value stock of the undervalued value seem to have no attraction.

For the future trend of growth stocks, Xiaobian believes that due to 2013 Growth stocks Accumulation of higher gains, from the disclosure of the report, many growth stocks growth does not support its high valuation, so the future growth stocks plate into the plate differentiation should be a big probability event. However, from the perspective of the allocation of stock funds, funds will still make decisions among the varieties in the field. Therefore, some real performance growth varieties and sectors that meet the direction of industrial transformation still have structural opportunities.

Based on the above logic, Societe Generale Global Fund said it would choose stocks along two lines. One is to choose the best. For those who are in line with the direction of industrial transformation, the industry growth is in a higher business cycle, and the companies that can reveal the rapid growth of enterprises can be reflected from the disclosure data. Xiaobian still firmly values its investment value, especially after the adjustment of the plate and the valuation of the varieties decline, and there is still a good chance to intervene.

Another idea is to find the forgotten corners of the market. Xiaobian believes that if each industry studies carefully, it is possible to find some opportunities that appear to be growing in general but contain good investment value. For example, in some very traditional sectors, with the intensification of inter enterprise integration and the increase of industry concentration, the industry has not seen obvious rapid growth, but the gross profit margin of leading enterprises has gradually increased, for example, this year's air conditioning sector and dairy industry share a good performance.

Xiaobian believes that industrial transfer is also a train of thought. Gross domestic product The growth rate has declined, and the cost of the whole society has increased. The low end manufacturing industry with the advantage has been transferred to Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries. But with the upgrading of the manufacturing level, there are other industries with higher gross profit. From this perspective, the future electronic sector and chemical sector will still be able to find better investment targets. In addition, domestic demand growth is still the main concern of Xiaobian. With the continuous improvement of domestic consumption capacity, the trend of medical demand and aging is increasing. Food, beverage, medicine, energy and other sectors still contain better investment opportunities.