Appreciation Of The Yuan Against The US Dollar Is Expected To Exceed 5.

< p > Beijing time January 13th morning, Reuters reported that the "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp "RMB exchange rate < /a > showed a sharp rise in the year of Malaysia, which is not realistic. However, the probability of" unilateral U-turn "after years of unilateral appreciation is not great. The RMB exchange rate is expected to officially enter the" 5 "era. < /p >
< p > taking into account that the RMB exchange rate is near equilibrium, and the "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp "> the Fed" /a "exit quantitative easing (QE) has also started, emerging countries are facing the capital outflow impact, will ease the pressure of RMB appreciation, and provide a market basis for bilateral exchange rate fluctuations; however, China's economic growth prospects and foreign interests spreads lead to the balance of payments surplus, and the RMB exchange rate is still difficult to tear up the" appreciation "label. < /p >
China will clearly continue to push forward the RMB exchange rate reform in 2014. P announced that it would soon expand the daily average volatility of the RMB against the US dollar and form a market condition for reducing normal intervention. What's more noteworthy is that RMB's capital account is open or become a key breakthrough in 2014. < /p >
< p > "theoretically, the RMB exchange rate approaches the equilibrium level, and the effective exchange rate of RMB will rise in 2014 after QE withdraws." And the renminbi will appreciate not only against other countries, but also against the US dollar. " Wen bin, director of macroeconomic research at the Institute of international finance, Bank of China, said. < /p >
< p > he explained that, according to the proportion of the trade surplus to GDP, the RMB exchange rate is near the equilibrium level, but if we take into account the role of cross-border capital promoted by "wide margin" and "high margin" under the Chinese capital terms, the RMB exchange rate has not actually reached the equilibrium level, and spreads arbitrage and trade finance will continue to promote RMB appreciation. < /p >
< p > China Merchants Bank (10.76, 0, 0%) head office, < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > financial market < /a > Senior Analyst Liu Dongliang [micro-blog] also pointed out that RMB exchange rate reform is about to enter tenth years in 2014, breaking the one-way appreciation and entering the two-way floating demand is becoming increasingly urgent. However, it is not expected that the foreign exchange reform will achieve breakthroughs in 2014, and the momentum of RMB appreciation will not change until the central bank transfers more pricing power to the market. < /p >
< p > but Liu Dongmin, deputy director of the International Finance Research Institute of the Academy of Social Sciences, is optimistic about the progress of the exchange reform in 2014. He also mentioned that taking account of the risk of short-term cross-border capital shocks, it is not advisable to open capital account quickly. < /p >
In 2013, the RMB appreciation rate against the US dollar rose to 2.91% on the spot, which was significantly accelerated compared with 1% in 2012, and the unilateral appreciation in the fourth consecutive years since 2009. Since the new round of foreign exchange reform in 2005, the appreciation rate of RMB has reached 36.7%. In addition to the slight depreciation of the financial crisis in 2009, the other years all showed an appreciation trend. < /p >