09 Years Of Growth In Textile And Clothing Industry Is Hard To Avoid.

Per capita disposable income, urbanization rate and population growth are the main driving force for textile clothing demand growth.

According to the national "11th Five-Year" development plan, the annual population growth is controlled at 8%.

Below, the per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents increased by 5% annually, the national urbanization ratio reached 47%, the national total population reached 1 billion 360 million, and the domestic market is expected to continue to grow.

The slowdown in the macro-economy has led to a decline in growth rate, and it is hard to avoid the fact that the domestic market of textile and apparel continues to grow, benefiting from the sustained growth of per capita disposable income and the improvement of urbanization rate.

In 2008 1-9, sales of clothing and needle textiles increased by about 25.9% over the same period last year.

The macroeconomic climate index, wholesale and retail business climate index and consumer confidence index continued to decline, showing signs of macroeconomic slowdown.

Affected by macroeconomic slowdown, the growth of per capita disposable income in urban and rural areas will also slow down, and the growth of textile and apparel domestic market will be hard to avoid.

The growth rate of the domestic market in 2009 may drop to 17%-12%'s conservative assumption that the urbanization rate and the natural growth rate of population will be approximately replaced by the growth of disposable income of residents in the first 3 quarters of 2008, and the impact of the macroeconomic slowdown on the growth of domestic textile apparel demand in 2009 will be analyzed.

Referring to the urbanization rate of 44.9% in 2007 and the rate of urbanization increasing by 1 percentage points per year in 2000-2007 Years, the urbanization rate in 2010 will exceed the goal of "11th Five-Year" plan 47%, and it is assumed that the urbanization rate is 2008-2010, 46%, 46.5% and 47% respectively.

Referring to the natural growth rate of population in 2007, 5.17%.

In the past 2000-2007 Years, the natural growth rate of the population has decreased by 0.34 thousandths per year, assuming that the natural growth rate of the 2008-2010 year population is 4.5%.

4%.

3.5%.

Referring to the growth rate of disposable income of residents in the first 3 quarters of 2008, the growth of disposable income of residents in the first 3 quarters of 2008 will replace the growth rate of disposable income of residents in 2008. It is assumed that the growth of per capita income of urban and rural residents in 2008 is 14.68% and 19.57% respectively.

Referring to the growth rate of per capita disposable income growth in urban and rural areas in 2007 and 2000-2008, we assume that the growth rate of per capita income in urban and rural areas in 2009 is 15%-5%.

Referring to the proportion of clothing and home textiles in the total volume of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles wholesale and retail sales in 2007 (about 72.16% of clothing and about 27.84% of home textiles), under the neutral circumstances, it is estimated that the growth rate of domestic textile and apparel market in 2009 will probably drop to 17%-12%.

Yang Jing: editor in charge