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Monetary Policy Still Dominates The Australian Dollar Market.

2016/5/5 21:34:00 25

Monetary PolicyAustralian DollarExchange Rate

On Thursday (May 5th), Australia's trade and retail sales figures in March were better than expected, and the Aussie dollar rebounded sharply against the US dollar in the day. The highest level has reached 0.75 points, or more than 0.7%.

China's new financial services industry PMI released in April was less than expected, but its impact was limited.

In addition, the sudden fire in Canada's oil producing area strengthened oil prices, and the US dollar rose 2 at the end of the Canadian dollar.

Although the good Australian trade account made the Australian dollar short jump, the impact of the RBA's interest rate cut was particularly high, so the Australian dollar was not optimistic.

The Australian dollar is also supported by the yield of local bonds higher than that of other developed countries.

According to Fitch's report, the yield of overseas bonds of about 10 trillion US dollars is below zero, of which Japan accounts for 2/3.

In contrast, the yield of Australian bonds remains between 1.7-2.4%.

  

Australia

After the March quarter, the retail sales rate was 0.4%, higher than the expected value of 0.3%, and the quarter quarter growth of retail sales in Australia was 0.5%, 0.7% and 0.6% respectively.

In March, the trade deficit of goods and services accounts for a deficit of 2 billion 160 million Australian dollars, which was significantly reduced compared with the previous value of 3 billion 44 million Australian dollars and the expected value of 2 billion 900 million Australian dollars.

In addition, Australia's exports of goods and services in March were 4%, -1% and Australia's commodities and services in March.

Imported

1%, the former value is 0%.

Although the official EIA inventory data of the United States continued to increase by 2 million 800 thousand barrels, up from the expected 1 million barrels, the oil price was suppressed, but the supply worries caused by the evacuations of residents in Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada, provided support for oil prices.

Wildfires in the province spread throughout the Fort McMurray City, which is the heart of the Canadian oil field, which will lead to a reduction in output of major oil companies.

Oil prices rose sharply today, and the 2 day slump in the Canadian dollar has been curbed.

On the 1 hour cycle, the Australian dollar against the US dollar has fallen short of the 5 wave. The current rally is close to the 23.60% decline in the fall range, and the 38.2% division 0.7551 will be the next target position.

US dollar plus Canadian dollar

On the cycle, the recent strong downtrend and downtrend line, the high-end pressure is located at 1.2900/50, low-level support to see the 1.2600.4 hours cycle, the exchange rate broke multiple necklines, high-grade next neckline is located in 1.2991.

In other currencies, the euro went against the US dollar yesterday, which has continued from the 8 month high of 1.1617 on Tuesday to the 1.1467 line, indicating that the mid term rise of the euro has come to the top of the stage. The exchange rate has been short or concussion. The pound rebounded against the US dollar since 1.3835 has been stronger than the previous period, and it has revised the decline since the 1.7190.


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