Favorable Factors Gathered PTA6 Rose 11% Over The Month

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the domestic PTA spot market in June showed a sharp rebound after the first shock adjustment, and the average market price in June 28th ended at 6366 yuan / ton, up 11.34% from the beginning of the month, up 8.45% over the same period. The futures market also maintained a strong momentum, of which the June 27th PTA futures contract closed up, up 5.02%, reported 6026 yuan / ton, refresh the two month high.

Crude oil inventories continued to rise at the beginning of the month, resulting in a slight decline in the cost of PTA. Subsequently, the Han Bang petrochemical, Tung Kun petrochemical, Sichuan Chemical and Hua Bin petrochemical and other devices have unexpectedly stopped, PTA spot liquidity is tight, pushing prices up. Yanda Shanda's failure and negative pressure and constant force announcement and maintenance plan have accelerated the rebound in the current market on the basis of good fundamentals. At the end of the month, with the upgrading of Yisheng Dalian PTA plant and the restart of Sichuan's energy investment, the domestic PTA operation rate will be raised to about 94.14%. However, in the early July, if the maintenance of 4 million 500 thousand tons of Fuhai plant is going on as scheduled, the operating rate will fall again. At the same time, under the control of PTA factory, there are still a lot of PTA suppliers, but suppliers are reluctant to sell and push up prices.

On the cost side, the US crude oil inventories unexpectedly lifted sharply, boosted the confidence of the market and pushed the oil price up strongly. As of June 27th, the closing price of the international crude oil WTI main futures was 59.43 US dollars / barrel, supporting the downstream cost. However, in June, the price trend of domestic PX market continued to decline, the average price at the end of the month was 7000 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the month, the price of 7300 yuan / ton fell 4.11%, down 10.26% compared with the same period last year. PX's operating rate has been maintained at more than 7, of which Fuhai has started a new plant, and the Urumqi petrochemical plant has been operating at about 5. The PX operation in Asia is more than 7, the supply of goods is normal, and the price of the PX external market is lower recently. The closing price at the end of the month is 829-831 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 848-850 US dollars / ton CFR China.

　　 Comparison of PTA industry chain operating rate in June

In terms of demand, polyester plant maintains about 90% higher starting load, finished product inventory is low, and purchasing enthusiasm is active. Polyester market continues to rise in price with raw materials. Among them, polyester POY and FDY rose the most in one month, rising 10.56% and 9.92% respectively. Specifically, as of June 28th, the mainstream factory of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester POY (150D/48F) reported 8250-8660 yuan / ton, polyester FDY (150D/96F) reported 8750-9000 yuan / ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F) reported 9700-10100 yuan / ton. The load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms starts around 78%, but the terminal textile market is not flourishing. The inventory of grey cloth is still around 42 days. The traditional demand is out of season and the trade war is uncertain.

Judging from the textile industry, the textile index of the business community shows that the textile index in June 28th was 888 points, an increase of 1 points from the previous day, a 23.18% decrease from the highest point in the cycle (2018-09-03), up 24.20% from the 715 lowest point on 2016 17 in 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to date). On the export side, the export of textiles and garments stabilized in May, and the export performance of the industry was better than expected. According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China in the 1-5 months was 99 billion 589 million US dollars, down 2.23% from the same period last year, and the growth rate was 1.46 percentage points higher than that in the first four months of this year. Among them, the total export volume of textiles was 48 billion 310 million US dollars, an increase of 1.53% over the same period last year, and the total export volume of clothing was 51 billion 280 million US dollars, down 5.52% from the same period last year.

Xia Ting, a business analyst, believes that the current shortage of PTA spot market, the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories, the polyester link Gao Kaigong, the low inventory state, and the easing of Sino US trade frictions, plus the impact of the futures market speculation, will continue to ferment in the short term. There are still several changes to be followed in the post market: first, the PTA supply side. At present, the profits of the PTA industry will rise to a high level again. Under the condition of considerable profits, some maintenance plans of the devices will be canceled or reduced. Second, terminal needs. The transfer of polyester stocks to terminal factories is difficult to smoothly translate into terminal orders, but the characteristics of the off-season in July will become more apparent. Therefore, from the perspective of the whole July, it is expected that the price of PTA will show a trend of first rise and then fall.