Yin Zhongli: The Key To The Success Of The Registration System Lies In The Effective Operation Of The Delisting System

In the past 30 years, starting from scratch, China's capital market has become the second largest capital market in the world. In the latest top-level design, the registration system has been implemented on the science and technology innovation board and the growth enterprise market, and the multi-level capital market system has gradually grown.

Under the top-level design, fully implementing the stock issuance registration system and establishing a normalized delisting mechanism will become the key to the construction of the capital market reform system in the next stage.

Connecting the preceding and the following, we should learn from history. The 21st century economic reporter interviewed Yin Zhongli, a researcher at the Institute of finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and deputy director of the Financial Market Research Office of the Institute of finance of the Chinese Academy of social sciences to look back on the rise and fall and analyze the future.

Yin Zhongli was engaged in Capital Market Research for a long time in his early years, and accumulated rich experience in front-line research. He was one of the first "best analysts of new wealth".

After joining the Institute of finance of the Academy of Social Sciences, he is often praised for his research and judgment on the trend of A-share market from the perspective of an independent third party.

810 storm, the past of the reform of non tradable shares

21st century: what are the key points that have made your impression clear in the past 30 years?

After 30 years of reform and opening up, Yin has made great achievements in the reform and opening up of the market. At the beginning of the establishment of China's stock market, I began to enter the workplace. I graduated from my master's degree in 1993 and went to Shenzhen. I went to the forefront of the stock market and witnessed and participated in many things in China's capital market.

What impressed me most was the 810 incident in 1992. At that time, it was almost because of the lottery table in the stock market that caused mass incidents. However, it also played a catalytic role in the institutional construction of China's stock market.

In August 1992, a number of new shares were issued by drawing lots. The so-called drawing table means that each person is allowed to buy one or two drawing tables, and the winning rate is about 10%. In other words, if you buy 10 sheets, only one of them can win the lottery to buy stocks. At that time, buying stocks and winning a lottery could make thousands or tens of thousands of yuan. In 1992, many college students who just came out of the campus pursued the dream and goal in their lifetime. It is no exaggeration to say that you can realize your life dream by buying a lottery form. A lot of people all over the country are eager for it.

At that time, there were only 600000 people in Shenzhen, but during the period when the lottery table was issued, the population would double. The taxi prices from Guangzhou to Shenzhen also soared by 10 times. It is conceivable that the scene is so hot. And the most incredible thing is that in order to buy the drawing table, many people queue up at the window two or three days in advance. No matter men, women, young or old, the people behind hold the waist of the people in front of them. If they don't, they may be squeezed out of the line. It can be said that in August, it's very hard for all of them to be crazy in the heat of August.

But once everyone's dream is extinguished, it will be broken.

It is said that at that time, the lottery tables were sold on behalf of the banks, and many branches of the banks privately divided the lottery tables inside. Those who stood in line for two or three days at the window were full of anger and needed to vent their anger.

After the outbreak of this incident, some people wrote about the internal reference, mainly including two groups of opinions: one is that the stock market is capitalist, and China's socialism should not establish a stock market, which is almost fatal to the domestic stock market; the second is that the stock market is a new thing, and it will inevitably go through a chaotic stage in the early stage of reform, and it is imperative to adopt more regulations Fan's system construction is perfect.

Later, the Central Committee adopted the second opinion, and the CSRC was formally established.

Therefore, the 810 incident directly promoted the establishment of China's stock market. It was also an important node of the stock market from the beginning of disorder, no system, no rules, to the final organized and regular.

21st century: what key reforms do you think are right in the past 30 years?

Yin Zhongli: the most critical reform in 30 years may be the non tradable share reform launched in 2005. In fact, many people who study the split share structure have not thought about why the state-owned shares and corporate shares are not allowed to circulate before 2005 since the early 1990s.

In fact, the historical fact is like this: at the beginning of the establishment of the stock market in 1990, we had to answer an ideological question: is the capital market a society or a capital?

All systems and their evolution have a path dependence. To know where the starting point is, the stock market is generated in the torture of the surname society and capital.

The policy makers adopted a compromise: to let the state-owned shares and corporate shares not circulate, let the minority of circulating shares circulate, and let more than 60% of the shares not circulate, so as to ensure that the socialist nature of the stock market remains unchanged, and thus such a system has been formed.

However, this system will show its disadvantages by 2000.

Although the legal rights of the same share are equal to those of different rights, there is no way to achieve equality if one is in circulation and the other is not in circulation. The nature of the operation of joint-stock companies has also changed a lot. Because the shares of the controlling shareholders can not be circulated, the listed companies do not take the maximization of their share property as the goal, but take the qualification of allotment and refinancing as the biggest goal. That is to say, the major shareholders of the company at that time took the interests of circulating shareholders as the goal orientation, and the company's performance had nothing to do with itself.

Under various pressures, China has launched the reform of non tradable shares, and 2005 is also the best time window for China to face. Because the reform of non tradable shares means that 60% of the previously non tradable shares can also be qualified for circulation, the supply of the whole market will be greatly increased, and the pressure on the secondary market will be enormous. At that time, it was launched by the regulatory authorities to make suggestions from the private sector, and adopted the strategy of circulating shares and consideration of large shareholders. In other words, each company holds its own internal shareholders' meeting and board of directors to discuss and vote and propose a consideration scheme. In some listed companies, the shareholders of tradable shares receive 30% compensation from the major shareholders, that is to say, they get 10:3 consideration from the major shareholders, and some are 10:5 or even higher consideration. The proportion of each company is different according to the actual situation.

In addition, China's capital was very abundant in 2005, which also offset the pressure brought by the reform of non tradable shares to a certain extent.

China joined the WTO in 2001. From 2001 to 2004, China's foreign exchange reserves increased by more than 200 billion US dollars, providing a lot of liquidity to the market. The market thus opened a big bull market.

Accurate A-share research and judgment under "policy market"

21st century: one of the reasons why you are praised by the market is that you accurately study and judge the trend of a shares. What kind of thinking and logic do you have behind such accurate research and judgment?

Yin Zhongli: what investors probably know most now is the abnormal volatility of the stock market in 2015. In fact, at the end of 2013, when we wrote the report on the development of the stock market (the report is a sub report of the "China Financial Development Report" written by the Institute of finance, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences), we clearly predicted that there would be a bull market in the stock market in 2014, but no one believed this judgment, because the current macro-economy was still in a continuous downward process, but in 2014, the market went Potential proves our correctness. By the end of 2014, we predicted that in 2015, we could break through 5000 points, which was verified again. But at 5000 o'clock, we were shouting that the risk was coming. On the May Day of 2015, I spent two or three days writing an internal reference to indicate the risk of the stock market. The conclusion is: the stock market's decline in 2015 may be the unprecedented collapse mode of China's A-share market.

Although there has been a bear market in China's capital market before, it lasted for a long time and fell sharply. But based on the judgment of the risk of leveraged funds, I think that 2015 may be different from all previous stock market falls in form and degree. Because before 2015, there was no bull market decline in China due to the explosion of leveraged funds.

As a matter of fact, there was no leverage for all of us in the process of financing. But in the process of the stock market's rise in 2015, leveraged funds are rapidly accumulating.

I made a calculation at that time. The highest leverage capital on the market was 2.5 trillion yuan, and there was about 300 billion yuan of leverage capital outside the market. The total amount was close to 6 trillion yuan. However, the current market value at that time was only about 30 trillion yuan. Our leverage accounts for nearly 20% of the current market value. From the historical experience of Wall Street, when the proportion of leveraged funds exceeds 3%, it means high risk. We have reached about 20%. There is no doubt that the risk is huge.

21st century: the market often describes A-share as a "policy market". Do you draw lessons from the policy factors in your research and judgment of A-share?

Yin Zhongli: the reason why China's stock market can predict is to a large extent due to the intervention of policy hands in the operation of the stock market. It should be said that the degree is higher than that of other mature markets. This is also an inevitable result, because China's stock market grew up on the embryo of the planned economy, unlike Wall Street in the United States, which was created under the sycamore tree and developed from bottom to top Expand. China's stock market is different. It was formed from the top to the bottom from the beginning. It is the product of administrative promotion. Therefore, in the early stock market, it should be said that the formation of each big bull market had the shadow of government intervention to a certain extent.

The most typical is the 5.19 market. On May 19, 1999, the Shanghai stock index was 1050 points, and in June 2001, it rose to more than 2245 points. In fact, the bull market lasting for two years can not be summarized as "artificial bull market". Because China's economy continued to decline from 1999 to 2001, we used a series of policy combinations to push up the price of the stock market.

The cause is man-made intervention, so the outcome is undoubtedly inseparable from human intervention. So as long as we grasp the trend of the policy, we can understand when it will start and when it will end.

21st century: is the impact of current policies on a shares as much as before?

Yin Zhongli: the core content of the registration system reform is to reduce administrative intervention. Therefore, the regulatory authorities have put forward the nine character policy of capital market: system building, non intervention and zero tolerance. The "non intervention" in the middle is very targeted.

This is a guideline for the reform and development of the capital market at present and in the future.

Reducing administrative intervention is easier said than done. Looking back on history, we once had two presidents of the Securities Regulatory Commission. In fact, both of them had high academic literacy. Their ideas were in line with the mature market at the beginning. They both explicitly proposed that regulators should not intervene in the market price. However, as the chairman of the CSRC, there are many unspeakable difficulties between theory and reality.

Delisting system is more important than issuing system

21st century: Chairman Yi Huiman introduced the direction of the construction of the basic system of the domestic capital market. What reforms should be given priority to under the registration system?

Yin Zhongli: I think the most important two systems are the new stock issue system and the delisting system. Based on the existing historical facts in China, delisting system is more important than issuing system.

There are mainly two reasons: first, there are more than 4000 A-share listed companies in China's capital market, and there are more than 4000 in the United States. Looking back over the past decade, one of the important reasons why Wall Street has formed a big bull market is that the number of companies that delisted each year exceeds the number of IPOs. Because of the constant metabolism, the most powerful companies are left behind, and then the market forms an upward force. On the contrary, if only new shares are listed but not eliminated, the listed companies will accumulate more and more, and it is difficult to ensure that all the excellent companies are present. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the intensity of delisting. Only by ensuring that the quality of listed companies is constantly improved can the so-called slow bull trend be formed.

Second, each country has a certain amount of financial resources, and the number of assets that can obtain liquidity premium is limited. China's 170 million retail investors can only ensure that, for example, more than 4000 companies can get a liquidity premium, and they can't afford 5000 or more. Therefore, under the goal of large-scale implementation of the registration system, the issuance of new shares is bound to accelerate. If the delisting system is not accelerated, the market will be difficult to balance.

Therefore, from the perspective of dynamic balance, it is urgent to promote the improvement and perfection of delisting system on a large scale.

The 21st century: the regulators put the reform of delisting system as important as the reform of registration system. What do you think of this statement?

Yin Zhongli: in the last two years, especially in the last year, it should be said that the speed of delisting is accelerating. More than 40 listed companies were delisted in 2001, but there were almost no delisting companies in the following decade. More than 20 IPOs will be delisted in 2019. It is estimated that the speed will be slightly accelerated this year, but this is not enough because at least 100 IPO projects are expected to be withdrawn this year. According to the dynamic balance, it is reasonable to withdraw 300 from the top 300.

If the number of stocks listed each year is far greater than the number of delisting, it means that emerging industries and technology innovation companies are increasingly difficult to obtain liquidity support through listing, because the market liquidity is not enough to support more enterprises. Then to a certain extent, we must use the administrative hand to intervene in the speed of new stock issuance, and return to the old way.

Therefore, the key to the success of the registration system is not other systems, but whether the delisting system can be carried out effectively. If the delisting system can not be carried out efficiently, the registration system is in fact an empty talk.

21st century: from your point of view, how should the delisting system in China continue to be improved or strengthened?

Yin Zhongli: this involves a core problem, that is, the game between the local government and the central government. All the local governments in which companies are registered are reluctant to be delisted. But if everyone thinks so, the delisting system will be difficult to implement. Therefore, how to cut off the local government's administrative intervention in the delisting system is the key.

In the past two years, there has been a good phenomenon, that is, we have found an effective delisting method with Chinese characteristics - face value delisting. Why can the par value delisting successfully defuse the intervention of the local government? Because if the stock price falls below one yuan, it means that the market value of this listed company is very small. In this case, the local government is not willing to save it, because there is no point in saving it. Moreover, the market value of a company has dropped from tens of billions to hundreds of millions, or even smaller. It will take a long time to change hands, and the risk losses of all participants are controllable. Therefore, face value delisting is an effective delisting method in line with Chinese characteristics. I hope that the face value delisting system should be effectively strengthened.

A market without short power is unsound

21st century: you were the first batch of front-line researchers who won the title of "best analyst of new wealth". How do you evaluate the investment research service in the current market?

In fact, what the securities companies want to do is to make the most of their own interests. When the market does not have a short mechanism, or short can not make money, then the reports issued by these R & D personnel will not be bearish, so they will certainly be bullish in their reports.

Although we have a securities lending system, short-sighted people can borrow bonds to go out and make money. But in fact, it is very difficult to borrow securities in China. At present, the amount of margin trading plus securities lending is 1.5 trillion yuan, of which there is no small amount of securities lending. The scale of securities lending has always been only 120 billion yuan. We have not yet formed a short mechanism, the mechanism is incomplete, and a market without short power is not sound.

21st century: what kind of relationship should be between listed companies, retail investors and institutional investors?

Yin Zhongli: I once proposed the concept of "stock market ecology". The stock market is similar to an ecosystem of the ocean. Listed companies are actually aquatic plants. Institutional investors and retail investors belong to different levels of organisms. Some are plankton, some are small fish and some are big fish. The photosynthesis of listed companies as aquatic plants is the source of initial energy. The other animals eat the big fish and the small fish. Only when the water and grass are rich enough, can the dynamic balance of marine ecology be maintained. Only when the profits of listed companies continue to improve, can the ecology of the stock market be improved in a good direction.

However, the ecology of China's stock market seems to rely too much on small fish and shrimp, that is, retail investors. The dividend of listed companies, that is, the strength of aquatic plants is too weak in this ecology.

These companies are "big enough" for investors to carve up. And our market is big fish eat small fish, that is, institutional investors rely on the leek of retail investors. In fact, the annual profit of retail investors is negative, which means that the annual profit of retail investors is negative.